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Description |
Résumé |
Savings, investment and development are three key words in the economic problems of
all countries of the world. We always ask the question: "Can we drive and influence growth
and development without worrying about what constitutes its soul? These are indeed related
phenomena, we cannot indicate the existence of one without mentioning the others. They are
sources of advancement and social well-being. Morocco faces the challenge of successfully
making the transition to a new development model that should enable it to position itself on a
higher but more inclusive and sustainable growth level. This challenge is correlated with the
intensification of productive investment and greater savings mobilization. In Morocco, the
persistence of a sub-optimal composition of the household savings portfolio could lead to
numerous distortions, which could penalize both savers and the financing of the economy by
delaying the desired economic and social changes.
The review of theoretical and empirical work shows that, despite their abundance,
existing studies do not yet provide a definitive answer to the problem of determinants of the
allocation's choice of morrocan's house holds savings, the debate is not yet closed. Based on a
critical look at the literature, we decided to develop the object of our research by comparing
the theoretical and empirical results of the literature with the Moroccan reality. The main
question of our research can be summarized as follows:
"What are the factors explaining the choice of allocation of Moroccan households'
savings? ».
In light of our research adheres to the post-positivist current based on an hypotheticodeductive
approach, we have chosen a four-steps scientific approach:
1) Elaboration of a review of theoretical and empirical literature that delineates the main
theories and empirical studies related to our study;
2) Construction of a set of hypotheses linking the independent variables to the
dependent variable and this in accordance with the theoretical and empirical literature review
initially identified, and at this level several variables are defined;
3) Collection of empirical data in a qualitative way then in a quantitative way. At this
stage, sampling is an essential step. We chose the sample and the mode of administration of
the questionnaire with great delicacy, and we conducted the survey among Moroccan
households;
4) On the basis of the collected data, we carried out empirical analyses and tests to
validate or refute our hypotheses, and by confronting the empirical results obtained with the
theoretical and empirical framework of the literature, we confirmed or refuted the literature
already elaborated, and even proposed other lines of research.
Among the main results, we determined through uni-variate analysis, the characteristics
of the surveyed households, the characteristics of the allocation of their savings, and the
characteristics of the factors explaining the choice of allocation of Moroccan households'
savings. Next, we identified, through the bi-variate analysis, the confirmed and rejected
hypotheses regarding our research topic. Finally, we split the eight explanatory factors of the
choice of allocation of household savings in Morocco into two main axes, condensing the
information contained within this number of variables into a restricted subset of new
composite dimensions while ensuring minimal loss of information. In addition, by using
logistic regression, we constructed an econometric model answering the following question:
"What is the contribution of the eight explanatory factors in predicting the type of
allocation of Moroccan household savings? ».
We estimate these results capable of conveying informal savings to formal savings by
indicating the probability of allocation to each of the two sectors. In addition, by determining
the factors that guide the choice of allocation of moroccan households' savings, a banker or
financial institution can take this information in light in order to design savings or investment
products that meet the true expectations of moroccan households. As a result, domestic
savings mobilization in Morocco will increase, while at the same time the country's reliance
on external financing will decline. Ultimately, this will lead to a satisfactory level of
development and strong and sustainable economic growth. |