SOURCES DE LA PERSISTANCE DE L'INFLATION EN RDC

Résumé

The objective of this study is to estimate the persistence coefficient of inflation and identify its sources of persistence in the DRC. Using the ARMA(1,1) model and the consumer price index (CPI) calculated by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) for the period from January 2012 to June 2022, the following results were obtained : (i) the persistence coefficient of 0.86; (ii) inflation for the past month contributes 81% to current inflation; (iii) the stochastic volatility is 0.00006; and (iv) the shocks of the past month contribute 16% to the dynamics of inflation; (v) the sources of the persistence of inflation are the rational expectations of economic agents and monetary, budgetary and exchange rate policy shocks, and exogenous shocks (energy, food crises).