PREVISION DE LA CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE MAROCAINE A L’AIDE DES DONNEES DU MARCHE BOURSIER.
Mots-clés :
PIB, Marché boursier, prévisions, VARRésumé
Abstaract :
The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationships between the stock market and the economic growth and it intends to evaluate the predictive power of financial series from stock market for forecasting the Moroccan GDP growth. The results of the cointegrations tests indicated the lack of a stable long-term relationship. This led us to estimate and validate a VAR model to produce the forecasts. The results of the forecasting accuracy show that the series studied can predict the economic growth with an acceptable deviation from the real economic activity. However, they cannot produce good forecasts during time of crisis.
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