USING EMISSIONS OF PRECURSOR POLLUTANTS BY SHIPS IN DIFFERENT REGIONS TO CALCULATE YEARLY MORTALITY ATTRIBUTABLE TO MARITIME TRANSPORT: CASE FOR THE IMO TO DESIGNATE THE STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR AN ECA ZONE.

Abstract

Emissions of exhaust gases from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. Emissions by shipping, comprising both “greenhouse gases” and traditional pollutants, cause an estimated 87,000 deaths per year from lung-cancer, cardiopulmonary and other diseases, worldwide. In order to reduce air pollution from ships, the International Maritime Organization has officially designated certain zones as Emission Control Areas (ECAs). In this study, we estimate health impacts attributable to NO_x, SO_x and particulate matter (PM_2.5), emitted by shipping in the Strait of Gibraltar. This contamination causes many deaths that could potentially be prevented if the Strait were designated an ECA. In this case, the models devised by Krewski and Lepeule were applied. Both models use a direct relationship between mortality and the precursor pollutants, in tons, emitted from ships. Data for other areas are analysed for comparison. Comparing only the emissions by ships operating in the Strait of Gibraltar with the yearly total emissions from all sources in Europe, up to 0.81% of all NOx, 3.96% of all PM_2.5 and 0.51% of all SOx is emitted in the Strait of Gibraltar. Because these shipping lanes run at an average distance of only 13 km from the coast, the effects of pollutants on the resident population are almost immediate. To mitigate the adverse environmental and health outcomes from ship-sourced air pollution, and potentially to reduce premature deaths by 45%, it is recommended that the Strait of Gibraltar be designated an ECA by the IMO.