TAUX DE CHANGE ET CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE AU MAROC : EVIDENCE EMPIRIQUE

Résumé

This article aims to study the effects of the exchange rate on economic growth in Morocco during the last three decades (1988-2016) that included several devaluations. To do this, we first presented an analytical reading of the different macroeconomic aggregates and then used a model of economic growth that included the real exchange rate as a variable. The empirical analysis relied on the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, to conclude at the end that an appreciation (overvaluation) of the real exchange rate can have a negative effect on short-term economic growth, which justifies the devaluations practiced during this period, however, variations in the exchange rate over the long term do not have the expected effect on economic growth, which predicts that a possible depreciation of the exchange rate in the context of a flexible exchange rate regime will have only a short-term effect which will not allow a price competitiveness in the long terme and consequently eliminate the structural trade deficit.