L’AFRIQUE SUBSAHARIENNE PEUT-ELLE AMELIORER SA PERFORMANCE FISCALE SANS COMPTER SUR LA RENTE PETROLIERE ?

Résumé

This article aims to assess the impact of oil rent on fiscal performance in Sub-saharan Africa during the period 1995 to 2016. To achieve this objective, we have recourse to the fixed-effect model of Bird et al. (2008), in order to assess the effects of the oil rent on the tax effort on the one hand and on the other hand on the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator and of the Var model of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) based on the model of Haldenwang and Ivanyna (2018), in order to examine the effects of rent on the vulnerability of tax revenues. The results show that: (i) Oil rent improves the tax effort by 0,2101996 units per 1% threshold. (ii) In addition, the oil rent does not cause the vulnerability of tax revenues to 0,9311 unit and tax revenues are insensitive to  the long-term oil rent at 0,7843424 units at the 1% threshold. The estimation of our results was carried out first using the 2SLS model (for fiscal effort) and the Mean Group estimator (for vulnearbility) shows that these results are robust.