DESALIGNEMENT DU TAUX DE CHANGE D’EQUILIBRE ET BALANCE DES PAIEMENTS: CAS DU MAROC

Résumé

Macroeconomic equilibrium and external competitiveness of any country remain dependent on an adjustment of the real exchange rate value and its equilibrium, a necessity which is explained by the adverse consequences of recurring and persistent deviations that can lead to structural imbalances in labor market and also in tradable and non-tradable goods markets.

In the Moroccan context, the concern of the real exchange rate misalignment has been for some time in the core of interest for many reasons, a concern that has increased after the intention revealed by autoroties to adopte the floating regime. In this article, we will examine the effects, if it’s proven, of the real real exchange rate (REER) misalignment on the balance-of-payments value for the period covering the 37 latest years. In order to do so, we will first use a pannel cointegration model, based on the data of five countries predominantly from MENA,  to estimate the real equilibrium exchange rate, we will preceed by adopting the behavioral approach to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (BEER), and by using an HP filtering process, we will evaluate the misalignment between the value of the estimated exchange rate and the exchange rate applied, a result that will be tested in order to verify its impact on the balance of payments.

The results thus obtained show that the effect of the misalignment on the economy through the balance of payments is not confirmed in the case of Morocco as long as it remains under control, but the effect remains undeniable judging by the structure of the correlation.