TAUX DE CHANGE ET CONTRIBUTION DU SECTEUR TOURISTIQUE AU MAROC

Résumé

The purpose of this research is to study the effects of the fluctuation of the exchange rate on the contribution of the tourism sector in Morocco during the period 1995-2016. We will apply the error correction vector model (VECM), the Granger causality test and the co-integration approach. The results will show that the fluctuation of the exchange rate has a significantly negative effect on the output of the tourism sector and that increased fluctuation reduces the contribution of the tourism sector to GDP. The result of the Granger causality test has shown that there is a one-way causality and a long-term relationship between the variable dependent on the contribution of the tourism sector to GDP and the independent variables which are the real effective exchange rate, the number of tourist arrivals, employment in the tourism sector. Our analysis has shown that the economic policy adopted must have a stabilizing impact on the exchange rate.