MODELLING OF THE ECOLOGICAL NICHE OF PARKIA BIGLOBOSA Jacq. G. Dong IN ITS CURRENT RANGE AND UP TO 2070 IN THE COUNTRY OF KABYE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48346/IMIST.PRSM/ajlp-gs.v7i5.51828Keywords:
Parkia biglobosa, aire de répartition, changements climatiques, habitat favorable, scénario d’émission SSP, Pays KabyèAbstract
Parkia biglobosa is an agroforestry species of major socio-economic importance, not only in Togo, but throughout West Africa. However, its conservation and domestication, as part of the diversification of agricultural production, depends on its ability to adapt to climate change. To assess this impact, 5,268 occurrences points were analyzed in combination with bioclimatic variables to model the influence of current and future environmental conditions on the potential distribution area of P. biglobosa, using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The areas favourable to the cultivation and conservation of the species in Kabyè country have varied over time according to two climatic scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 58.5), taking into account current soil conditions. By 2070, all climate scenarios show a significant increase in very favourable areas, particularly in the SSP 245 scenario (+271.67%). Conversely, a significant decrease in moderately favourable areas is expected, especially in the same scenario (-38.81%). The unfavourable areas are slightly reduced in the two future scenarios. These results underline the importance of integrating these projections into development policies to ensure effective conservation and sustainable use of the néré tree in Kabyè country.
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