le paradoxe de L’« Attractivité durable » cas du Maroc 1970-2014

Ahmed AIT BARI

Résumé


In this paper we examine the causal relationship between attractiveness and sustainable development (SD) in Morocco over the period 1970-2014. The article implements the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach, transformed to the Error Correction Model (ECM), in order to investigate the long run and the short run relationships between the variables. The results show that there is a long run relationship between the attractiveness of the kingdom and its Human Development Index as a socio-economic feature of its SD. This relationship is confirmed by the negative highly significant ECM term. The deviation of attractiveness index from its long run value is corrected after 5 years and 11 months. Moreover, significant short run causality from the explanatory variables to the attractiveness variable is detected in the first model but it is not detected through SD variables in the two other models:  the attractiveness of Morocco in terms of FDI didn’t affect its SD during the period examined. However, the latter has a negative and significant impact on it. In consequence, the country faces the challenge of reconciling two divergent goals (attractiveness and SD). This is the “sustainable attractiveness” paradox.

Mots-clés


Attractivité, Développement durable, IDE, FMN, ARDL, Maroc.

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