L’ANALYSE DES SINISTRES EXTREMES EN TAKAFUL

Amine ESSADIK, Boujemâa ACHCHAB

Résumé


Takaful is an Islamic insurance model, in which the actors are pooling money in order to take advantage of a mutual guarantee against loss or damage. Takaful insurance companies are based on the precepts of Sharia, which prohibited the principles of Riba (interest) of almaissir (gambling) and al-gharar (speculation), they represent an alternative to conventional insurance companies. The presence of extreme sinistres that exceed the Takaful capital poses a challenge for Takaful companies, since they can generate very significant financial losses. The modeling of these sinistres by the normal distribution has been used for a long time in risk management. However, empirical studies conclude that actuarial data presents systematic deviations from normality. The objective of this article is to study the extreme sinistres that exceed the limit of Takaful capital: The determination of the probability distribution, that can model these losses, is an important step in choosing the best adjustment. This study is based on the extreme values theory which is interested on the extreme values in order to predict major disasters.


Mots-clés


Takaful, Retakaful, the normal distribution, Extreme values theory.

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